New initiative from the European Commission is very important for Belarus but also for Ukraine. For Ukraine it means that the EU sends signal to the Ukrainian elites that Ukraine is not seen as a candidate for the EU membership, for Belarus it can bring new opportunities, but it depends only on good will of our political elites, in general of one main politician!
After the EU enlargement in 2004, European politicians realized that the EU has new borders and new neighbors, so they found themselves in completely new situation with new threats for the European security. After negotiations, the ENP (European Neighborhood Policy) was launched. Some countries became active partners of the ENP, some not, like Belarus. What means to be a partner state of the ENP? First of all, it means quite substantial financial assistance for the country from the budget of the European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument. It means money for state and local administration, civil society development. For instance, in 2005 for Ukraine was available 88 million €, and for Belarus only 8 million €. Of course, this money is not so big, but it is certainly better then nothing. If Ukraine is building a strategic partnership with the EU, Belarus, due to the political situation within the country, is missing the great opportunity to benefit from the ENPI! Who is loosing in this case? First of all, the population of Belarus, because politicians can always find some resources to “survive”!
But I was planning to write about the new initiative of the European Commission – Eastern Partnership. What is the EP? On the 3rd of December the Memorandum on the EP was adopted where the Eastern Partnership is described as “an ambitious proposal” of the EC that “represents a step change in the EU's relations with its Eastern Partners as it aims at enhancing cooperation both on bilateral and multilateral level”. So, the EP is step forward in the politics of the EU towards the eastern post-Soviet countries, excluding Russia. But it is clear that the new project as well as the ENP, does not mean the future membership of these states. It is new attempt to create area of prosperity and stability eastward of the EU. Certainly, Russia is not in a favour of this EU policy because it will undermine the influence of the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet country. Will see, how successful will be this new EU’s initiative, because the Eastern Partnership should be adopted also by the European Council and after all procedure will be finished, an "Eastern partnership summit" will be organized in spring 2009. Let’s hope that this promising EU project will not be lost in the corridors of the EU institutions…
The EP includes six partner countries such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and depending on its own choices Belarus! So, Belarus again is free to decide about its participation in new policy of the EU towards these eastern states. It is very important question: will the Belarusian politicians again pursue politics of isolation or the country will benefit from the new project of the EU?
Currently, we have quite optimistic signals from the state authorities. Belarusian Foreign Minister Syarhey Martynaw stated that “Minsk has a positive attitude toward the Eastern Partnership project”. The explanation of such attitude if that “Belarus approves the EU's new strategy because it is being devised in cooperation with each of the six target countries and not by Brussels alone”.
As since few months some progress in Belarus-EU relations was observed, I really hope that Belarusian politicians will be wise enough do not loose this opportunity to benefit from the EP.